Every decision is graded against the realized price once its lead time matures (30 / 60 / 90 days for short / mid / long). A hit is a BUY the price then rose through the dead band, or a SELL it fell through; the reverse is a miss; HOLD is neither. The hit rate of the weighted lane — the decisions actually shown — is reported next to two baselines that are never hidden: unweighted, the same evidence with every voice counted equally (what the learned weights have to beat), and always-BUY, buying every ticker every day (what the market gave away for free). If the weighted line does not sit above both, the learning is not working, and this page will say so.

Hit rates and mean returns are over the trailing 90 days of matured decisions, one row per day per horizon, as materialized by the daily run. Weights are the learner’s smoothed hit rate — 1.00 is the unmeasured default, above 1 has earned trust, below 1 has lost it; thin records are shrunk toward 1 so they cannot dominate. Nothing on this page is hand-set.